Scenario Planning: Thinking Differently About the Future
Date: 7th – 8th February 2019
Venue: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
MAIN LEARNING OBJECTIVES AND BENEFITS:
- Understand why it is wrong and potentially risky, the way people commonly expect their “future landscape” to evolve
- Assess how the future actually unfold, potentially leading to an entirely different landscape from the one you are operating in today
- Dissect the true meaning of a “driving force” in the context of future change
- Determine which driving forces are the most critical uncertainties your company will face
- Study how the evolution of these critical uncertainties defines a matrix of plausible but contrasting scenarios for the future
- Visualize these future scenarios in more detail, in terms of key attributes that are relevant to your business
- Gain valuable insights on what each of these alternative scenarios could mean for your company in terms of opportunities and challenges
- Evaluate your current state of readiness for each scenario and come up with a “to do” list of action steps and strategic initiatives that your company could already implement
- Master a way of thinking that can inform the deliberations your company goes through when it is developing a long-term strategic plan
- Enjoy the course for its high energy level and interactive learning
The goal of this course is to give participants a valuable tool for visualizing how their future business environment could realistically change, depending on how certain current trends play out. The name of this tool is “scenario planning”, sometimes referred to simply as “foresight”. It is not a technique for predicting the future, but for exploring it, i.e. for seeing and understanding possible business landscapes that could realistically materialize, allowing managers to assess how effective their current strategies would be in different terrains, and spot opportunities and threats that may await them in each of the different future landscapes that are posited by the scenario generation process. Armed with these insights, they can then craft strategies to improve their chances of success in each of the different scenarios that may arise. Apart from an introductory presentation, the course will be entirely interactive. On the first day, the programme begins with a look at why it is wrong, and possibly even dangerous, to expect that the future will develop in just one particular direction. Instead, at any point in time, multiple futures are possible, meaning that the ultimate range of what is possible continues to expand, becoming ever wider as time goes on. Given enough time, it is likely that key aspects of the business environment will have changed so much that we can even speak of operating in a totally different landscape than before.
Scenario planning is the process used to visualize how these different landscapes would emerge, and what they would be like in some detail. The introductory presentation provides an overview of the technique used, from identification of driving forces affecting an organization, the definition of the critical uncertainties it will face, and the creation of a matrix of possible outcomes which define contrasting alternative scenarios, to the process of describing how these scenarios would look and feel in more detail, and the creation of a “to do” list of actions that the organization could address in each one.
Having presented the process, the rest of the course will be spent in interactive workshop mode, generating four plausible scenarios for the future of a specific business that participants will all be familiar with, and developing strategies for success in each one. The first step of this process is to develop a list of driving forces that can have an impact on the future of the business. To do this, participants will be broken down into working groups, each one focusing on a particular category of change, based on a specific model. Following a presentation and discussion of these driving forces, participants will then decide which ones are in fact the most critical uncertainties – “make or break” forces that could most dramatically change the contours of the landscape. The resulting choice determines the axes of a scenario matrix, which in turn defines four plausible but completely different future business terrains. On the second day, participants will once again be broken into working groups to elaborate the four scenarios in more details, looking at such characteristics as market dynamics, likely competitive terrain, winners/losers, and signposts to be expected that may indicate the scenario is materializing. Each working group will present their scenario to the group for further discussion and adaptation.
Next, each scenario team will evaluate its scenario with a view to spotting specific opportunities and threats to the business. Lastly, a set of recommendations will be elaborated consisting of (a) potential strategic initiatives and (b) potential innovations that would make sense to launch/ implement in order for the business to be best prepared to meet the challenges, and exploit the opportunities, that each scenario presents.
WHO SHOULD ATTEND?
- CEOs and Directors
- Strategic Planning Managers
- Marketing Managers
- Business Development Managers
- Risk Managers
- Product Development Managers
- And any other Professionals who are involved in business and predicting future scenarios
For more information on the above program, please send an email to [email protected] with name of event, dates & location. Thank you!